Prepare for Peak!

Although peak season doesn't have hard start and end dates, most businesses see an increase in sales between October 1 and January 1, when several major holidays provide an opportunity for gift-giving. Many consumers start their holiday shopping even earlier; last year, 35% of people had already started shopping as of September.

The busiest days of peak season include Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday.* These days, plus Small Business Saturday and Cyber Sunday, made up 16.2% of U.S. retail ecommerce sales during the 2023 peak season. Cyber Monday is traditionally the biggest online shopping day of the year, with consumers spending about $12 billion in 2023.

*In 2024, Thanksgiving will fall on 11/28, Black Friday on 11/29, and Cyber Monday on 12/2.

We don't have a crystal ball (sadly), but we can predict consumer spending patterns based on current economic conditions and data from previous peak seasons. Last year, consumers spent $964.4 billion during the holiday season. Between November 1 and December 31, they spent $222.1 billion online, setting a new record for ecommerce with a 4.9% year-over-year increase.

Will the upward trend continue? While Emarketer predicts that 2024 U.S. holiday retail sails will see 4.8% growth, seller should be aware that high inflation and interest rates are causing people to spend cautiously and hunt for the best bargains. Still, as National Retail Federation (NRF) puts it, the "resiliency of consumers" should fuel moderate growth throughout 2024.

Peak season surcharges are additional fees that carriers charge during periods of high demand. Shipping carriers usually announce their peak season surcharges in September or October, so we don't yet know what the 2024 surcharges will be. However, we can look at last year's numbers for an idea of what to expect.

In 2023, USPS announced that they would not have peak season surcharges. UPS surcharges ranged from $1.35 to $7.50 per package, depending on shipping service and a company's historical shipment volume. FedEx surcharges ranged from $1.35 to $7.40 depending on shipping service and historical volume. Get the full breakdown here.

Your customers will likely want to know the latest date they can place their orders to have them delivered in time for Christmas. Each year, carriers release their shipping deadlines so you can keep customers informed and manage expectations. You can expect to find the 2024 deadlines around the start of peak season, but it may be helpful to review the 2023 deadlines for domestic and international shipping through USPS, UPS, FedEx, and DHL eCommerce.

Last peak season, nearly 12% of online orders were returned on average. Items purchased during Christmas week had the highest return rate at 19%. With such a high rate of returns, it's important that you have a great reverse logistics process in place to handle returns quickly and efficiently.

During peak season, customers are especially concerned with receiving their deliveries by the promised deadline. Other top priorities include proof of delivery (83%), easy-to-use package tracking (80%), and flexible delivery times (68%).

Customers also want the option to pick products up from the store. The closer the holidays are, the more customers value a buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS) option. Starting the first week of November 2023, at least 22% of online orders were picked up weekly, and that number rose to 33% the week of Christmas. 

Many people also want fast shipping options, including same and next-day delivery. Gen Z is especially interested in expedited delivery, with over half of them saying they're willing to pay more for it.